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Interclube vs Sporting de Cabinda — Girabola 2019

Interclube
Interclube
CANC
14:00
Sporting de Cabinda
Sporting de Cabinda
2/3/2024GirabolaGirabola · Round 13Estádio Joaquim Dinis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Interclube64%
×Draw23%
Sporting de Cabinda13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Interclube
1.71
Sporting de Cabinda
0.60

Interclube creates 185% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 68 away

creates per match

Interclube
1.47
Sporting de Cabinda
0.51

allows per match

Interclube
0.70
Sporting de Cabinda
1.94

finishing

Interclube+0.00on par
Sporting de Cabinda+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Interclube ↓

Sporting de Cabinda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Interclube or draw
87%
Interclube or Sporting de Cabinda
77%
Draw or Sporting de Cabinda
36%

Winning margin

Interclube wins by 2+
37%
Sporting de Cabinda wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Interclube 1+ goals
82%
Interclube 2+ goals
51%
Interclube 3+ goals
24%
Sporting de Cabinda 1+ goals
45%
Sporting de Cabinda 2+ goals
12%
Sporting de Cabinda 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Interclube (draw refunded)
84%
Sporting de Cabinda (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Interclube at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.70 · 115 matches

Sporting de Cabinda away — creates 0.51, concedes 1.94 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Interclube attack 1.47 + Sporting de Cabinda defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.71

Sporting de Cabinda attack 0.51 + Interclube defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Interclube scores more
64%
level
23%
Sporting de Cabinda scores more
13%

Interclube at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Interclube will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Interclube host Sporting de Cabinda

February 3, 2024: Interclube take on Sporting de Cabinda in Girabola. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Interclube host Sporting de Cabinda at Estádio Joaquim Dinis.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.