Interclube 2–1 Sporting de Cabinda: Result & Stats

Interclube

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Sporting de Cabinda

4/16/2022

Girabola · Round 26Estádio Joaquim Dinis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Interclube63%

×Draw24%

Sporting de Cabinda13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

InterclubeExpected goals in this matchSporting de Cabinda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.61

Interclube

1.65

Sporting de Cabinda

0.61

Interclube creates 170% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 63 away

1.47

creates per match

0.51

0.72

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Interclube

1.47

Sporting de Cabinda

0.51

allows per match

Interclube

0.72

Sporting de Cabinda

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Interclube+0.00on par

Sporting de Cabinda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Interclube ↓

Sporting de Cabinda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Interclube or draw

87%

Interclube or Sporting de Cabinda

76%

Draw or Sporting de Cabinda

37%

Winning margin

Interclube wins by 2+

35%

Sporting de Cabinda wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Interclube 1+ goals

81%

Interclube 2+ goals

49%

Interclube 3+ goals

23%

Sporting de Cabinda 1+ goals

46%

Sporting de Cabinda 2+ goals

13%

Sporting de Cabinda 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Interclube (draw refunded)

82%

Sporting de Cabinda (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Interclube at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.72 · 104 matches

Sporting de Cabinda away — creates 0.51, concedes 1.83 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Interclube attack 1.47 + Sporting de Cabinda defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.65

Sporting de Cabinda attack 0.51 + Interclube defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Interclube scores more

63%

level

24%

Sporting de Cabinda scores more

13%

Interclube at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Interclube will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff