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Interclube vs Baixa de Kassange — Girabola 2019

Interclube
Interclube
FT
1 – 0
Baixa de Kassange
Baixa de Kassange
3/6/2021GirabolaGirabola · Round 14Estádio Joaquim Dinis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Interclube63%
×Draw23%
Baixa de Kassange14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Interclube
1.75
Baixa de Kassange
0.69

Interclube creates 154% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 15 away

creates per match

Interclube
1.49
Baixa de Kassange
0.67

allows per match

Interclube
0.71
Baixa de Kassange
2.00

finishing

Interclube+0.00on par
Baixa de Kassange+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Interclube ↓

Baixa de Kassange →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Interclube or draw
86%
Interclube or Baixa de Kassange
77%
Draw or Baixa de Kassange
37%

Winning margin

Interclube wins by 2+
36%
Baixa de Kassange wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Interclube 1+ goals
83%
Interclube 2+ goals
52%
Interclube 3+ goals
25%
Baixa de Kassange 1+ goals
50%
Baixa de Kassange 2+ goals
15%
Baixa de Kassange 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Interclube (draw refunded)
81%
Baixa de Kassange (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Interclube at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.71 · 109 matches

Baixa de Kassange away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Interclube attack 1.49 + Baixa de Kassange defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Baixa de Kassange attack 0.67 + Interclube defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Interclube scores more
63%
level
23%
Baixa de Kassange scores more
14%

Interclube at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Interclube will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Interclube 1–0 Baixa de Kassange

Interclube beat Baixa de Kassange 1-0 in Girabola on March 6, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Joaquim Dinis in Luanda.