Baixa de Kassange 1–0 Interclube: Result & Stats

Baixa de Kassange

FT

1 – 0

Interclube

7/24/2021

Girabola · Round 29Estádio 1º de Maio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Baixa de Kassange36%

×Draw32%

Interclube32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Baixa de KassangeExpected goals in this matchInterclube

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

0.91

Baixa de Kassange

0.98

Interclube

0.91

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 106 away

1.00

creates per match

0.89

0.93

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Baixa de Kassange

1.00

Interclube

0.89

allows per match

Baixa de Kassange

0.93

Interclube

0.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baixa de Kassange+0.00on par

Interclube+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baixa de Kassange ↓

Interclube →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–114%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Baixa de Kassange or draw

68%

Baixa de Kassange or Interclube

68%

Draw or Interclube

64%

Winning margin

Baixa de Kassange wins by 2+

13%

Interclube wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Baixa de Kassange 1+ goals

62%

Baixa de Kassange 2+ goals

26%

Baixa de Kassange 3+ goals

8%

Interclube 1+ goals

60%

Interclube 2+ goals

23%

Interclube 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Baixa de Kassange (draw refunded)

53%

Interclube (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baixa de Kassange at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Interclube away — creates 0.89, concedes 0.97 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baixa de Kassange attack 1.00 + Interclube defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.98

Interclube attack 0.89 + Baixa de Kassange defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Baixa de Kassange scores more

36%

level

32%

Interclube scores more

32%

Baixa de Kassange at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Baixa de Kassange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff