Intercity 3–0 Eldense: Result & Stats

Intercity

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Eldense

Carlos Carrasco 89'

Luis García 49'

Paco Peña 14'

11/17/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 13Poliesportiu Sant Joan d'Alacant

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Intercity45%

×Draw27%

Eldense28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IntercityExpected goals in this matchEldense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.07

Intercity

1.42

Eldense

1.07

Intercity creates 33% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 26 away

1.72

creates per match

1.19

0.96

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Intercity

1.72

Eldense

1.19

allows per match

Intercity

0.96

Eldense

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Intercity+0.00on par

Eldense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Intercity ↓

Eldense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Intercity or draw

72%

Intercity or Eldense

73%

Draw or Eldense

55%

Winning margin

Intercity wins by 2+

22%

Eldense wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Intercity 1+ goals

76%

Intercity 2+ goals

41%

Intercity 3+ goals

17%

Eldense 1+ goals

66%

Eldense 2+ goals

29%

Eldense 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Intercity (draw refunded)

61%

Eldense (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Intercity at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.96 · 25 matches

Eldense away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.12 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Intercity attack 1.72 + Eldense defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.42

Eldense attack 1.19 + Intercity defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Intercity scores more

45%

level

27%

Eldense scores more

28%

Intercity at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Intercity will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

Paco Peña

49'

Luis García

52'

A. Khalok← Daniel Salazar

55'

Paco Candela← J. Gaspar

55'

Kevin Sanchez← Ferran García

70'

Paquito Padilla← E. Salazar

75'

Rafael Palao← Cristian Herrera

89'

Carlos Carrasco

Intercity

Eldense

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: José Lledó

55'▲Paco Candela←▼J. Gaspar

75'▲Rafael Palao←▼Cristian Herrera

Intercity substitutes

CandelaPalao

Manager: Santiago Rico

52'▲A. Khalok←▼Daniel Salazar

55'▲Kevin Sanchez←▼Ferran García

70'▲Paquito Padilla←▼E. Salazar

Eldense substitutes

KhalokSanchezPadilla