Eldense 1–1 Intercity: Result & Stats

Eldense

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Intercity

David López 12'

David Torres 63'

11/28/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 6Estadio Municipal Nuevo Pepico Amat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Eldense39%

×Draw30%

Intercity31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EldenseExpected goals in this matchIntercity

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

0.94

Eldense

1.09

Intercity

0.94

Eldense creates 16% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 26 away

1.46

creates per match

1.42

0.46

allows per match

0.73

creates per match

Eldense

1.46

Intercity

1.42

allows per match

Eldense

0.46

Intercity

0.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eldense+0.00on par

Intercity+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eldense ↓

Intercity →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Eldense or draw

69%

Eldense or Intercity

70%

Draw or Intercity

61%

Winning margin

Eldense wins by 2+

16%

Intercity wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Eldense 1+ goals

66%

Eldense 2+ goals

30%

Eldense 3+ goals

10%

Intercity 1+ goals

61%

Intercity 2+ goals

24%

Intercity 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Eldense (draw refunded)

56%

Intercity (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eldense at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.46 · 24 matches

Intercity away — creates 1.42, concedes 0.73 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eldense attack 1.46 + Intercity defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.09

Intercity attack 1.42 + Eldense defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Eldense scores more

39%

level

30%

Intercity scores more

31%

Eldense at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Eldense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

David López

60'

Carlos Carrasco← Andy

63'

David Torres

69'

Prudencio← David López

77'

Juanmi← Óscar Díaz

77'

Víctor Banegas← M. Belotti

80'

Mario Uclés← Fran Hernández

80'

José Prieto← Ezequiel Calvente

86'

J. Villafranca← David Torres

Eldense

Intercity

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Santiago Rico

69'▲Prudencio←▼David López

77'▲Juanmi←▼Óscar Díaz

80'▲Mario Uclés←▼Fran Hernández

80'▲José Prieto←▼Ezequiel Calvente

Eldense substitutes

PrudencioJuanmiUclésPrieto

Manager: José Lledó

60'▲Carlos Carrasco←▼Andy

77'▲Víctor Banegas←▼M. Belotti

86'▲J. Villafranca←▼David Torres

Intercity substitutes

CarrascoBanegasVillafranca