Inter Zapresic 2–2 NK Varazdin: Result & Stats

Inter Zapresic

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

NK Varazdin

8/10/2019

HNL · Round 4Stadion Ivan Laljak-Ivić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Inter Zapresic31%

×Draw26%

NK Varazdin43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter ZapresicExpected goals in this matchNK Varazdin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.46

Inter Zapresic

1.21

NK Varazdin

1.46

NK Varazdin creates 21% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 108 away

1.08

creates per match

0.89

2.03

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Inter Zapresic

1.08

NK Varazdin

0.89

allows per match

Inter Zapresic

2.03

NK Varazdin

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter Zapresic+0.00on par

NK Varazdin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Zapresic ↓

NK Varazdin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Inter Zapresic or draw

57%

Inter Zapresic or NK Varazdin

74%

Draw or NK Varazdin

69%

Winning margin

Inter Zapresic wins by 2+

13%

NK Varazdin wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Inter Zapresic 1+ goals

70%

Inter Zapresic 2+ goals

34%

Inter Zapresic 3+ goals

12%

NK Varazdin 1+ goals

77%

NK Varazdin 2+ goals

43%

NK Varazdin 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Inter Zapresic (draw refunded)

42%

NK Varazdin (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Zapresic at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.03 · 36 matches

NK Varazdin away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.34 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Zapresic attack 1.08 + NK Varazdin defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.21

NK Varazdin attack 0.89 + Inter Zapresic defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Inter Zapresic scores more

31%

level

26%

NK Varazdin scores more

43%

NK Varazdin at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "NK Varazdin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff