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Inter Zapresic vs Hrvatski Dragovoljac — First NL 2018

Inter Zapresic
Inter Zapresic
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
3/19/2021First NLFirst NL · Round 23Stadion Ivan Laljak-Ivić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Inter Zapresic50%
×Draw27%
Hrvatski Dragovoljac24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Zapresic
1.46
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
0.92

Inter Zapresic creates 59% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 57 away

creates per match

Inter Zapresic
1.41
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
1.00

allows per match

Inter Zapresic
0.84
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
1.51

finishing

Inter Zapresic+0.00on par
Hrvatski Dragovoljac+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Zapresic ↓

Hrvatski Dragovoljac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Inter Zapresic or draw
76%
Inter Zapresic or Hrvatski Dragovoljac
73%
Draw or Hrvatski Dragovoljac
50%

Winning margin

Inter Zapresic wins by 2+
25%
Hrvatski Dragovoljac wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Inter Zapresic 1+ goals
77%
Inter Zapresic 2+ goals
43%
Inter Zapresic 3+ goals
18%
Hrvatski Dragovoljac 1+ goals
60%
Hrvatski Dragovoljac 2+ goals
23%
Hrvatski Dragovoljac 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Inter Zapresic (draw refunded)
68%
Hrvatski Dragovoljac (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Zapresic at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.84 · 32 matches

Hrvatski Dragovoljac away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.51 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Zapresic attack 1.41 + Hrvatski Dragovoljac defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.46

Hrvatski Dragovoljac attack 1.00 + Inter Zapresic defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Inter Zapresic scores more
50%
level
27%
Hrvatski Dragovoljac scores more
24%

Inter Zapresic at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Inter Zapresic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Inter Zapresic vs Hrvatski Dragovoljac

Inter Zapresic and Hrvatski Dragovoljac drew 0-0 in First NL on March 19, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Ivan Laljak-Ivić in Zaprešić.