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Hrvatski Dragovoljac vs Inter Zapresic — First NL 2018

Hrvatski Dragovoljac
Hrvatski Dragovoljac
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Inter Zapresic
Inter Zapresic
9/19/2020First NLFirst NL · Round 6Stadion NŠC Stjepan Spajić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Hrvatski Dragovoljac39%
×Draw27%
Inter Zapresic34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hrvatski Dragovoljac
1.29
Inter Zapresic
1.17

Hrvatski Dragovoljac creates 10% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 32 away

creates per match

Hrvatski Dragovoljac
1.25
Inter Zapresic
1.19

allows per match

Hrvatski Dragovoljac
1.16
Inter Zapresic
1.34

finishing

Hrvatski Dragovoljac+0.00on par
Inter Zapresic+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hrvatski Dragovoljac ↓

Inter Zapresic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Hrvatski Dragovoljac or draw
66%
Hrvatski Dragovoljac or Inter Zapresic
73%
Draw or Inter Zapresic
61%

Winning margin

Hrvatski Dragovoljac wins by 2+
18%
Inter Zapresic wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Hrvatski Dragovoljac 1+ goals
72%
Hrvatski Dragovoljac 2+ goals
37%
Hrvatski Dragovoljac 3+ goals
14%
Inter Zapresic 1+ goals
69%
Inter Zapresic 2+ goals
33%
Inter Zapresic 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hrvatski Dragovoljac (draw refunded)
54%
Inter Zapresic (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hrvatski Dragovoljac at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.16 · 55 matches

Inter Zapresic away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hrvatski Dragovoljac attack 1.25 + Inter Zapresic defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.29

Inter Zapresic attack 1.19 + Hrvatski Dragovoljac defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hrvatski Dragovoljac scores more
39%
level
27%
Inter Zapresic scores more
34%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Hrvatski Dragovoljac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First NL: Hrvatski Dragovoljac 3–2 Inter Zapresic

Hrvatski Dragovoljac beat Inter Zapresic 3-2 in First NL on September 19, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion NŠC Stjepan Spajić in Zagreb.