Inter Zapresic 1–4 HNK Rijeka: Result & Stats | HNL

Inter Zapresic

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 4

HNK Rijeka

11/24/2019

HNL · Round 16Stadion Ivan Laljak-Ivić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Inter Zapresic25%

×Draw24%

HNK Rijeka51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter ZapresicExpected goals in this matchHNK Rijeka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.71

Inter Zapresic

1.14

HNK Rijeka

1.71

HNK Rijeka creates 50% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 144 away

1.08

creates per match

1.40

2.03

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Inter Zapresic

1.08

HNK Rijeka

1.40

allows per match

Inter Zapresic

2.03

HNK Rijeka

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter Zapresic+0.00on par

HNK Rijeka+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Zapresic ↓

HNK Rijeka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Inter Zapresic or draw

49%

Inter Zapresic or HNK Rijeka

76%

Draw or HNK Rijeka

75%

Winning margin

Inter Zapresic wins by 2+

10%

HNK Rijeka wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Inter Zapresic 1+ goals

68%

Inter Zapresic 2+ goals

32%

Inter Zapresic 3+ goals

11%

HNK Rijeka 1+ goals

82%

HNK Rijeka 2+ goals

51%

HNK Rijeka 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Inter Zapresic (draw refunded)

33%

HNK Rijeka (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Zapresic at home — creates 1.08, concedes 2.03 · 36 matches

HNK Rijeka away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.19 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Zapresic attack 1.08 + HNK Rijeka defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.14

HNK Rijeka attack 1.40 + Inter Zapresic defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Inter Zapresic scores more

25%

level

24%

HNK Rijeka scores more

51%

HNK Rijeka at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "HNK Rijeka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff