HNK Rijeka 4–1 Inter Zapresic: Result & Stats

HNK Rijeka

FT

4 – 1

Inter Zapresic

5/19/2020

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion HNK Rijeka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

HNK Rijeka73%

×Draw16%

Inter Zapresic11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HNK RijekaExpected goals in this matchInter Zapresic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.56

0.90

HNK Rijeka

2.56

Inter Zapresic

0.90

HNK Rijeka creates 184% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 3 away

2.13

creates per match

1.00

0.80

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

HNK Rijeka

2.13

Inter Zapresic

1.00

allows per match

HNK Rijeka

0.80

Inter Zapresic

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

HNK Rijeka+0.00on par

Inter Zapresic+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Rijeka ↓

Inter Zapresic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

HNK Rijeka or draw

89%

HNK Rijeka or Inter Zapresic

84%

Draw or Inter Zapresic

27%

Winning margin

HNK Rijeka wins by 2+

51%

Inter Zapresic wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

HNK Rijeka 1+ goals

92%

HNK Rijeka 2+ goals

72%

HNK Rijeka 3+ goals

46%

Inter Zapresic 1+ goals

59%

Inter Zapresic 2+ goals

23%

Inter Zapresic 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

HNK Rijeka (draw refunded)

87%

Inter Zapresic (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Rijeka at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

Inter Zapresic away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Rijeka attack 2.13 + Inter Zapresic defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.56

Inter Zapresic attack 1.00 + HNK Rijeka defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

HNK Rijeka scores more

73%

level

16%

Inter Zapresic scores more

11%

HNK Rijeka at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "HNK Rijeka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff