Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Inter Zapresic vs HNK Hajduk Split II — First NL 2018

Inter Zapresic
Inter Zapresic
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
HNK Hajduk Split II
HNK Hajduk Split II
12/4/2020First NLFirst NL · Round 16Stadion Ivan Laljak-Ivić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Inter Zapresic46%
×Draw26%
HNK Hajduk Split II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Zapresic
1.48
HNK Hajduk Split II
1.09

Inter Zapresic creates 36% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 41 away

creates per match

Inter Zapresic
1.41
HNK Hajduk Split II
1.34

allows per match

Inter Zapresic
0.84
HNK Hajduk Split II
1.56

finishing

Inter Zapresic+0.00on par
HNK Hajduk Split II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Zapresic ↓

HNK Hajduk Split II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Inter Zapresic or draw
72%
Inter Zapresic or HNK Hajduk Split II
74%
Draw or HNK Hajduk Split II
54%

Winning margin

Inter Zapresic wins by 2+
23%
HNK Hajduk Split II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Inter Zapresic 1+ goals
77%
Inter Zapresic 2+ goals
43%
Inter Zapresic 3+ goals
19%
HNK Hajduk Split II 1+ goals
66%
HNK Hajduk Split II 2+ goals
30%
HNK Hajduk Split II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Inter Zapresic (draw refunded)
62%
HNK Hajduk Split II (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Zapresic at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.84 · 32 matches

HNK Hajduk Split II away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.56 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Zapresic attack 1.41 + HNK Hajduk Split II defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.48

HNK Hajduk Split II attack 1.34 + Inter Zapresic defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Inter Zapresic scores more
46%
level
26%
HNK Hajduk Split II scores more
28%

Inter Zapresic at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Inter Zapresic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First NL: Inter Zapresic 3–1 HNK Hajduk Split II

Inter Zapresic beat HNK Hajduk Split II 3-1 in First NL on December 4, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Ivan Laljak-Ivić in Zaprešić.