HNK Hajduk Split II 2–2 Inter Zapresic

HNK Hajduk Split II

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Inter Zapresic

5/23/2021

First NL · Round 33Stadion Poljud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

HNK Hajduk Split II45%

×Draw25%

Inter Zapresic30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HNK Hajduk Split IIExpected goals in this matchInter Zapresic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.23

HNK Hajduk Split II

1.56

Inter Zapresic

1.23

HNK Hajduk Split II creates 27% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 32 away

1.79

creates per match

1.19

1.26

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

HNK Hajduk Split II

1.79

Inter Zapresic

1.19

allows per match

HNK Hajduk Split II

1.26

Inter Zapresic

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

HNK Hajduk Split II+0.00on par

Inter Zapresic+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Hajduk Split II ↓

Inter Zapresic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

HNK Hajduk Split II or draw

70%

HNK Hajduk Split II or Inter Zapresic

75%

Draw or Inter Zapresic

55%

Winning margin

HNK Hajduk Split II wins by 2+

23%

Inter Zapresic wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

HNK Hajduk Split II 1+ goals

79%

HNK Hajduk Split II 2+ goals

46%

HNK Hajduk Split II 3+ goals

21%

Inter Zapresic 1+ goals

71%

Inter Zapresic 2+ goals

35%

Inter Zapresic 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

HNK Hajduk Split II (draw refunded)

60%

Inter Zapresic (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Hajduk Split II at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.26 · 38 matches

Inter Zapresic away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Hajduk Split II attack 1.79 + Inter Zapresic defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.56

Inter Zapresic attack 1.19 + HNK Hajduk Split II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

HNK Hajduk Split II scores more

45%

level

25%

Inter Zapresic scores more

30%

HNK Hajduk Split II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "HNK Hajduk Split II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff