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Inter Zapresic vs HNK Cibalia — First NL 2018

Inter Zapresic
Inter Zapresic
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
HNK Cibalia
HNK Cibalia
4/22/2022First NLFirst NL · Round 25Stadion Ivan Laljak-Ivić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Inter Zapresic49%
×Draw27%
HNK Cibalia24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Zapresic
1.46
HNK Cibalia
0.94

Inter Zapresic creates 55% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 107 away

creates per match

Inter Zapresic
1.41
HNK Cibalia
1.04

allows per match

Inter Zapresic
0.84
HNK Cibalia
1.52

finishing

Inter Zapresic+0.00on par
HNK Cibalia+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Zapresic ↓

HNK Cibalia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Inter Zapresic or draw
76%
Inter Zapresic or HNK Cibalia
73%
Draw or HNK Cibalia
51%

Winning margin

Inter Zapresic wins by 2+
24%
HNK Cibalia wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Inter Zapresic 1+ goals
77%
Inter Zapresic 2+ goals
43%
Inter Zapresic 3+ goals
18%
HNK Cibalia 1+ goals
61%
HNK Cibalia 2+ goals
24%
HNK Cibalia 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Inter Zapresic (draw refunded)
67%
HNK Cibalia (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Zapresic at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.84 · 32 matches

HNK Cibalia away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.52 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Zapresic attack 1.41 + HNK Cibalia defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.46

HNK Cibalia attack 1.04 + Inter Zapresic defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Inter Zapresic scores more
49%
level
27%
HNK Cibalia scores more
24%

Inter Zapresic at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Inter Zapresic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First NL: Inter Zapresic 1–1 HNK Cibalia

Inter Zapresic and HNK Cibalia drew 1-1 in First NL on April 22, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Ivan Laljak-Ivić in Zaprešić.