HNK Cibalia 1–1 Inter Zapresic: Result & Stats

HNK Cibalia

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Inter Zapresic

2/27/2021

First NL · Round 20Stadion Cibalia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

HNK Cibalia45%

×Draw26%

Inter Zapresic29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HNK CibaliaExpected goals in this matchInter Zapresic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.11

HNK Cibalia

1.45

Inter Zapresic

1.11

HNK Cibalia creates 31% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 32 away

1.56

creates per match

1.19

1.03

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

HNK Cibalia

1.56

Inter Zapresic

1.19

allows per match

HNK Cibalia

1.03

Inter Zapresic

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

HNK Cibalia+0.00on par

Inter Zapresic+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Cibalia ↓

Inter Zapresic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

HNK Cibalia or draw

71%

HNK Cibalia or Inter Zapresic

74%

Draw or Inter Zapresic

55%

Winning margin

HNK Cibalia wins by 2+

22%

Inter Zapresic wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

HNK Cibalia 1+ goals

77%

HNK Cibalia 2+ goals

42%

HNK Cibalia 3+ goals

18%

Inter Zapresic 1+ goals

67%

Inter Zapresic 2+ goals

30%

Inter Zapresic 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

HNK Cibalia (draw refunded)

61%

Inter Zapresic (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Cibalia at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.03 · 108 matches

Inter Zapresic away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Cibalia attack 1.56 + Inter Zapresic defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.45

Inter Zapresic attack 1.19 + HNK Cibalia defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

HNK Cibalia scores more

45%

level

26%

Inter Zapresic scores more

29%

HNK Cibalia at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "HNK Cibalia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff