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Inter vs Benevento — Serie A 2018

Inter
Inter
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Benevento
Benevento
1/30/2021Serie ASerie A · Round 20Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Inter63%
×Draw21%
Benevento16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter
2.01
Benevento
0.91

Inter creates 121% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 23 away

creates per match

Inter
2.19
Benevento
0.96

allows per match

Inter
0.85
Benevento
1.83

finishing

Inter+0.00on par
Benevento+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter ↓

Benevento →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Inter or draw
84%
Inter or Benevento
79%
Draw or Benevento
37%

Winning margin

Inter wins by 2+
38%
Benevento wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Inter 1+ goals
87%
Inter 2+ goals
59%
Inter 3+ goals
32%
Benevento 1+ goals
60%
Benevento 2+ goals
23%
Benevento 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Inter (draw refunded)
79%
Benevento (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter at home — creates 2.19, concedes 0.85 · 135 matches

Benevento away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.83 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter attack 2.19 + Benevento defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.01

Benevento attack 0.96 + Inter defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Inter scores more
63%
level
21%
Benevento scores more
16%

Inter at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Inter will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Inter vs Benevento

Inter beat Benevento 4-0 in Serie A on January 30, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Milano.