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Benevento vs Inter — Serie A 2018

Benevento
Benevento
FT
2 – 5
HT: 1 – 4
Inter
Inter
9/30/2020Serie ASerie A · Round 1Stadio Ciro Vigorito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Benevento19%
×Draw21%
Inter59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Benevento
1.04
Inter
1.99

Inter creates 91% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 136 away

creates per match

Benevento
1.04
Inter
1.90

allows per match

Benevento
2.09
Inter
1.03

finishing

Benevento+0.00on par
Inter+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benevento ↓

Inter →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Benevento or draw
41%
Benevento or Inter
79%
Draw or Inter
81%

Winning margin

Benevento wins by 2+
7%
Inter wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Benevento 1+ goals
65%
Benevento 2+ goals
28%
Benevento 3+ goals
9%
Inter 1+ goals
86%
Inter 2+ goals
59%
Inter 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Benevento (draw refunded)
25%
Inter (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benevento at home — creates 1.04, concedes 2.09 · 23 matches

Inter away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.03 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benevento attack 1.04 + Inter defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.04

Inter attack 1.90 + Benevento defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Benevento scores more
19%
level
21%
Inter scores more
59%

Inter at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Inter will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Benevento 2–5 Inter

Inter beat Benevento 5-2 in Serie A on September 30, 2020.

The match was played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito in Benevento.