Inter Turku II 3–0 Ilves II: Result & Stats

Inter Turku II

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Ilves II

5/2/2023

Suomen Cup · 3rd RoundTurku Energia Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Inter Turku II45%

×Draw20%

Ilves II34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter Turku IIExpected goals in this matchIlves II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.20

1.90

Inter Turku II

2.20

Ilves II

1.90

Inter Turku II creates 16% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

1.80

creates per match

2.40

1.40

allows per match

2.60

creates per match

Inter Turku II

1.80

Ilves II

2.40

allows per match

Inter Turku II

1.40

Ilves II

2.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter Turku II+0.00on par

Ilves II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Turku II ↓

Ilves II →

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Inter Turku II or draw

66%

Inter Turku II or Ilves II

80%

Draw or Ilves II

55%

Winning margin

Inter Turku II wins by 2+

26%

Ilves II wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Inter Turku II 1+ goals

89%

Inter Turku II 2+ goals

64%

Inter Turku II 3+ goals

37%

Ilves II 1+ goals

85%

Ilves II 2+ goals

56%

Ilves II 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Inter Turku II (draw refunded)

57%

Ilves II (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Inter Turku II at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Ilves II away — creates 2.40, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Inter Turku II attack 1.80 + Ilves II defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.20

Ilves II attack 2.40 + Inter Turku II defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Inter Turku II scores more

45%

level

20%

Ilves II scores more

34%

Inter Turku II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Inter Turku II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff