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Ilves II vs Inter Turku II — Kakkonen - Lohko B 2026

Ilves II
Ilves II
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Inter Turku II
Inter Turku II
5/5/2024Kakkonen - Lohko BKakkonen - Lohko B · Group B - 6Tammelan Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Ilves II31%
×Draw21%
Inter Turku II49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ilves II
1.70
Inter Turku II
2.18

Inter Turku II creates 28% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 10 away

creates per match

Ilves II
2.10
Inter Turku II
2.80

allows per match

Ilves II
1.56
Inter Turku II
1.30

finishing

Ilves II+0.00on par
Inter Turku II+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ilves II ↓

Inter Turku II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Ilves II or draw
51%
Ilves II or Inter Turku II
79%
Draw or Inter Turku II
69%

Winning margin

Ilves II wins by 2+
15%
Inter Turku II wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Ilves II 1+ goals
82%
Ilves II 2+ goals
51%
Ilves II 3+ goals
24%
Inter Turku II 1+ goals
89%
Inter Turku II 2+ goals
64%
Inter Turku II 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Ilves II (draw refunded)
38%
Inter Turku II (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ilves II at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.56 · 79 matches

Inter Turku II away — creates 2.80, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ilves II attack 2.10 + Inter Turku II defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.70

Inter Turku II attack 2.80 + Ilves II defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 2.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Ilves II scores more
31%
level
21%
Inter Turku II scores more
49%

Inter Turku II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Inter Turku II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko B: Ilves II 2–4 Inter Turku II

Inter Turku II beat Ilves II 4-2 in Kakkonen - Lohko B on May 5, 2024.

The match was played at Tammelan Stadion in Tampere.