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Inter Sevilla vs Coria CF — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Inter Sevilla
Inter Sevilla
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Coria CF
Coria CF
10/27/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 8Estadio San José

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Inter Sevilla29%
×Draw25%
Coria CF46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Sevilla
1.18
Coria CF
1.57

Coria CF creates 33% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 95 away

creates per match

Inter Sevilla
0.69
Coria CF
0.95

allows per match

Inter Sevilla
2.19
Coria CF
1.67

finishing

Inter Sevilla+0.00on par
Coria CF+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Sevilla ↓

Coria CF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Inter Sevilla or draw
54%
Inter Sevilla or Coria CF
75%
Draw or Coria CF
71%

Winning margin

Inter Sevilla wins by 2+
12%
Coria CF wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Inter Sevilla 1+ goals
69%
Inter Sevilla 2+ goals
33%
Inter Sevilla 3+ goals
12%
Coria CF 1+ goals
79%
Coria CF 2+ goals
46%
Coria CF 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Inter Sevilla (draw refunded)
38%
Coria CF (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Sevilla at home — creates 0.69, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

Coria CF away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.67 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Sevilla attack 0.69 + Coria CF defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.18

Coria CF attack 0.95 + Inter Sevilla defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Inter Sevilla scores more
29%
level
25%
Coria CF scores more
46%

Coria CF at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Coria CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Inter Sevilla 0–1 Coria CF

Coria CF beat Inter Sevilla 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on October 27, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio San José in Gines.