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Coria CF vs Inter Sevilla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Coria CF
Coria CF
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Inter Sevilla
Inter Sevilla
3/9/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 25Estadio Guadalquivir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Coria CF47%
×Draw27%
Inter Sevilla26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coria CF
1.45
Inter Sevilla
1.00

Coria CF creates 45% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 17 away

creates per match

Coria CF
1.07
Inter Sevilla
0.82

allows per match

Coria CF
1.18
Inter Sevilla
1.82

finishing

Coria CF+0.00on par
Inter Sevilla+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coria CF ↓

Inter Sevilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Coria CF or draw
74%
Coria CF or Inter Sevilla
73%
Draw or Inter Sevilla
53%

Winning margin

Coria CF wins by 2+
23%
Inter Sevilla wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Coria CF 1+ goals
77%
Coria CF 2+ goals
42%
Coria CF 3+ goals
18%
Inter Sevilla 1+ goals
63%
Inter Sevilla 2+ goals
26%
Inter Sevilla 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Coria CF (draw refunded)
65%
Inter Sevilla (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coria CF at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.18 · 94 matches

Inter Sevilla away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coria CF attack 1.07 + Inter Sevilla defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.45

Inter Sevilla attack 0.82 + Coria CF defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Coria CF scores more
47%
level
27%
Inter Sevilla scores more
26%

Coria CF at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Coria CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Coria CF 1–0 Inter Sevilla

Coria CF beat Inter Sevilla 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on March 9, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Guadalquivir in Coria del Río.