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Inter Sevilla vs Conil — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Inter Sevilla
Inter Sevilla
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Conil
Conil
12/8/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 14Centro Deportivo Antonio Puerta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Inter Sevilla29%
×Draw26%
Conil45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Sevilla
1.15
Conil
1.50

Conil creates 30% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 111 away

creates per match

Inter Sevilla
0.69
Conil
0.81

allows per match

Inter Sevilla
2.19
Conil
1.60

finishing

Inter Sevilla+0.00on par
Conil+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Sevilla ↓

Conil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Inter Sevilla or draw
55%
Inter Sevilla or Conil
74%
Draw or Conil
71%

Winning margin

Inter Sevilla wins by 2+
12%
Conil wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Inter Sevilla 1+ goals
68%
Inter Sevilla 2+ goals
32%
Inter Sevilla 3+ goals
11%
Conil 1+ goals
78%
Conil 2+ goals
44%
Conil 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Inter Sevilla (draw refunded)
39%
Conil (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Sevilla at home — creates 0.69, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

Conil away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.60 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Sevilla attack 0.69 + Conil defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.15

Conil attack 0.81 + Inter Sevilla defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Inter Sevilla scores more
29%
level
26%
Conil scores more
45%

Conil at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Conil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Inter Sevilla 0–2 Conil

Conil beat Inter Sevilla 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on December 8, 2024.

The match was played at Centro Deportivo Antonio Puerta in Sevilla.