Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Conil vs Inter Sevilla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Conil
Conil
FT
5 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Inter Sevilla
Inter Sevilla
4/27/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 31Estadio Municipal Jose António Pérez Ureba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Conil55%
×Draw25%
Inter Sevilla20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Conil
1.58
Inter Sevilla
0.83

Conil creates 90% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 17 away

creates per match

Conil
1.35
Inter Sevilla
0.82

allows per match

Conil
0.85
Inter Sevilla
1.82

finishing

Conil+0.00on par
Inter Sevilla+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Conil ↓

Inter Sevilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Conil or draw
80%
Conil or Inter Sevilla
75%
Draw or Inter Sevilla
45%

Winning margin

Conil wins by 2+
29%
Inter Sevilla wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Conil 1+ goals
79%
Conil 2+ goals
47%
Conil 3+ goals
21%
Inter Sevilla 1+ goals
56%
Inter Sevilla 2+ goals
20%
Inter Sevilla 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Conil (draw refunded)
74%
Inter Sevilla (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Conil at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.85 · 110 matches

Inter Sevilla away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Conil attack 1.35 + Inter Sevilla defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.58

Inter Sevilla attack 0.82 + Conil defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Conil scores more
55%
level
25%
Inter Sevilla scores more
20%

Conil at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Conil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Conil 5–2 Inter Sevilla

Conil beat Inter Sevilla 5-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on April 27, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Jose António Pérez Ureba in Conil de la Frontera.