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Inter San Carlos vs Cariari Pococi — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Inter San Carlos
Inter San Carlosadvanced
AET
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cariari Pococi
Cariari Pococi
11/29/2024Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - Quarter-finalsEstadio Carlos Ugalde Álvarez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Inter San Carlos57%
×Draw23%
Cariari Pococi20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter San Carlos
1.83
Cariari Pococi
0.98

Inter San Carlos creates 87% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 107 away

creates per match

Inter San Carlos
1.85
Cariari Pococi
1.23

allows per match

Inter San Carlos
0.74
Cariari Pococi
1.80

finishing

Inter San Carlos+0.00on par
Cariari Pococi+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter San Carlos ↓

Cariari Pococi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Inter San Carlos or draw
80%
Inter San Carlos or Cariari Pococi
77%
Draw or Cariari Pococi
43%

Winning margin

Inter San Carlos wins by 2+
33%
Cariari Pococi wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Inter San Carlos 1+ goals
84%
Inter San Carlos 2+ goals
54%
Inter San Carlos 3+ goals
28%
Cariari Pococi 1+ goals
62%
Cariari Pococi 2+ goals
26%
Cariari Pococi 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Inter San Carlos (draw refunded)
74%
Cariari Pococi (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter San Carlos at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.74 · 39 matches

Cariari Pococi away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.80 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter San Carlos attack 1.85 + Cariari Pococi defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.83

Cariari Pococi attack 1.23 + Inter San Carlos defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Inter San Carlos scores more
57%
level
23%
Cariari Pococi scores more
20%

Inter San Carlos at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Inter San Carlos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: Inter San Carlos 3–1 Cariari Pococi

Inter San Carlos beat Cariari Pococi 3-1 in Liga de Ascenso on November 29, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Carlos Ugalde Álvarez in Ciudad Quesada.