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Cariari Pococi vs Inter San Carlos — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Cariari Pococi
Cariari Pocociadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Inter San Carlos
Inter San Carlos
11/24/2024Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - Quarter-finalsEstadio Comunal Bernardo Veach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Cariari Pococi33%
×Draw24%
Inter San Carlos43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cariari Pococi
1.38
Inter San Carlos
1.63

Inter San Carlos creates 18% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 40 away

creates per match

Cariari Pococi
1.68
Inter San Carlos
1.85

allows per match

Cariari Pococi
1.40
Inter San Carlos
1.07

finishing

Cariari Pococi+0.00on par
Inter San Carlos+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cariari Pococi ↓

Inter San Carlos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Cariari Pococi or draw
57%
Cariari Pococi or Inter San Carlos
76%
Draw or Inter San Carlos
67%

Winning margin

Cariari Pococi wins by 2+
15%
Inter San Carlos wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Cariari Pococi 1+ goals
75%
Cariari Pococi 2+ goals
40%
Cariari Pococi 3+ goals
16%
Inter San Carlos 1+ goals
80%
Inter San Carlos 2+ goals
48%
Inter San Carlos 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Cariari Pococi (draw refunded)
43%
Inter San Carlos (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cariari Pococi at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.40 · 108 matches

Inter San Carlos away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.07 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cariari Pococi attack 1.68 + Inter San Carlos defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.38

Inter San Carlos attack 1.85 + Cariari Pococi defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cariari Pococi scores more
33%
level
24%
Inter San Carlos scores more
43%

Inter San Carlos at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Inter San Carlos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cariari Pococi vs Inter San Carlos

Cariari Pococi beat Inter San Carlos 1-0 in Liga de Ascenso on November 24, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Comunal Bernardo Veach in Cariari.