Inter Milano W 2–2 Sassuolo W: Result & Stats

Inter Milano W

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Sassuolo W

T. Wullaert 11', 8' (pen)

L. Chaib 83'

L. Clelland 21'

11/8/2025

League #139 · Round 5Stadio Ernesto Breda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Inter Milano W52%

×Draw24%

Sassuolo W25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter Milano WExpected goals in this matchSassuolo W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.13

Inter Milano W

1.75

Sassuolo W

1.13

Inter Milano W creates 55% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

1.50

creates per match

1.00

1.25

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Inter Milano W

1.50

Sassuolo W

1.00

allows per match

Inter Milano W

1.25

Sassuolo W

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter Milano W+0.00on par

Sassuolo W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Milano W ↓

Sassuolo W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Inter Milano W or draw

75%

Inter Milano W or Sassuolo W

76%

Draw or Sassuolo W

48%

Winning margin

Inter Milano W wins by 2+

28%

Sassuolo W wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Inter Milano W 1+ goals

83%

Inter Milano W 2+ goals

52%

Inter Milano W 3+ goals

25%

Sassuolo W 1+ goals

68%

Sassuolo W 2+ goals

31%

Sassuolo W 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Inter Milano W (draw refunded)

68%

Sassuolo W (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Milano W at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Sassuolo W away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Milano W attack 1.50 + Sassuolo W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Sassuolo W attack 1.00 + Inter Milano W defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Inter Milano W scores more

52%

level

24%

Sassuolo W scores more

25%

Inter Milano W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Inter Milano W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

T. Wullaert

Inter Milano W · F

8.3

Match Events

8'

Tessa WullaertGoal confirmed

8'

T. WullaertPenalty

11'

T. Wullaert↳ L. Magull

21'

L. Clelland↳ N. Ndjoah Eto

22'

Lana ClellandGoal confirmed

38'

Marie DetruyerGoal cancelled

45+2'

Lina MagullPenalty cancelled

54'

M. Perselli← M. Filis

66'

Maja Hagemann

68'

C. Robustellini← H. Csiszar

76'

B. Brignoli← G. Guerzoni

77'

L. Chaib← M. Hagemann

77'

E. Dhont← N. Ndjoah Eto

80'

K. Vilhjalmsdottir← I. Santi

81'

Ivana Andrés

83'

L. Chaib↳ E. Dhont

84'

Lina ChaibGoal confirmed

86'

Lina Chaib

87'

M. Tomasevic← M. Milinkovic

87'

B. Merlo← K. Bowen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

InterSassuolo

Overview

59%Possession41%

11Total Shots10

7Corners3

10Fouls12

Shots

11Total Shots10

4On Target5

6Off Target3

1Blocked2

10Inside Box4

1Outside Box6

Passing

59%Possession41%

414Total Passes292

314Accurate Passes207

76%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls12

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1