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Inter Milano W vs Sassuolo W — League #139 2026

Inter Milano W
Inter Milano W
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sassuolo W
Sassuolo W
E. Polli 66'
M. Tomaselli 52'
Ivana Andrés 26'
12/15/2024League #139League #139 · Round 13Arena Civica Gianni Brera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Inter Milano W52%
×Draw24%
Sassuolo W25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Milano W
1.75
Sassuolo W
1.13

Inter Milano W creates 55% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Inter Milano W
1.50
Sassuolo W
1.00

allows per match

Inter Milano W
1.25
Sassuolo W
2.00

finishing

Inter Milano W+0.00on par
Sassuolo W+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Milano W ↓

Sassuolo W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Inter Milano W or draw
75%
Inter Milano W or Sassuolo W
76%
Draw or Sassuolo W
48%

Winning margin

Inter Milano W wins by 2+
28%
Sassuolo W wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Inter Milano W 1+ goals
83%
Inter Milano W 2+ goals
52%
Inter Milano W 3+ goals
25%
Sassuolo W 1+ goals
68%
Sassuolo W 2+ goals
31%
Sassuolo W 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Inter Milano W (draw refunded)
68%
Sassuolo W (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Milano W at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Sassuolo W away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Milano W attack 1.50 + Sassuolo W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Sassuolo W attack 1.00 + Inter Milano W defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Inter Milano W scores more
52%
level
24%
Sassuolo W scores more
25%

Inter Milano W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Inter Milano W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
Ivana AndrésInter Milano WInter Milano W · D
8.3

Match Events

26'
Ivana Andrés↳ T. Wullaert
52'
M. Tomaselli↳ T. Wullaert
58'
Valentina Gallazzi
66'
E. Polli
67'
S. Mella← V. Gallazzi
68'
M. Hagemann← C. Pleidrup
68'
V. Monterubbiano← D. Sabatino
71'
M. Cambiaghi← E. Polli
71'
M. Detruyer← M. Tomaselli
75'
Ivana Andrés
76'
E. Bartoli← A. Serturini
76'
H. Bugeja← L. Magull
84'
I. Santi← T. Wullaert

Possession

63%Inter

Shots

18Inter

Pass accuracy

56%Inter

Statistics

InterSassuolo
Overview
63%Possession37%
18Total Shots9
4Corners3
9Fouls15
Shots
18Total Shots9
6On Target6
9Off Target1
3Blocked2
11Inside Box4
7Outside Box5
Passing
63%Possession37%
407Total Passes236
312Accurate Passes145
77%Pass Accuracy61%
Goalkeeping
5Saves3
Discipline
9Fouls15
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Inter Milano W vs Sassuolo W

Inter Milano W beat Sassuolo W 3-0 in League #139 on December 15, 2024.

Goals: Ivana Andrés (26'), M. Tomaselli (52'), E. Polli (66').

Inter Milano W controlled possession (63%) and registered 18 shots to 9.

The match was played at Arena Civica Gianni Brera in Milano.