Inter Miami 1–1 Nashville SC: Result & Stats

Inter Miami

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Nashville SC

L. Messi 7'

C. Espinoza 74'

3/18/2026

CONCACAF Champions League · Round of 16Chase Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Inter Miami40%

×Draw26%

Nashville SC35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter MiamiExpected goals in this matchNashville SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.31

Inter Miami

1.42

Nashville SC

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

2.00

creates per match

1.33

1.29

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Inter Miami

2.00

Nashville SC

1.33

allows per match

Inter Miami

1.29

Nashville SC

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter Miami+0.00on par

Nashville SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Miami ↓

Nashville SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Inter Miami or draw

65%

Inter Miami or Nashville SC

74%

Draw or Nashville SC

60%

Winning margin

Inter Miami wins by 2+

19%

Nashville SC wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Inter Miami 1+ goals

76%

Inter Miami 2+ goals

41%

Inter Miami 3+ goals

17%

Nashville SC 1+ goals

73%

Nashville SC 2+ goals

38%

Nashville SC 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Inter Miami (draw refunded)

53%

Nashville SC (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Miami at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Nashville SC away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Miami attack 2.00 + Nashville SC defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.42

Nashville SC attack 1.33 + Inter Miami defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Inter Miami scores more

40%

level

26%

Nashville SC scores more

35%

Inter Miami at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Inter Miami will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

L. Messi

Inter Miami · M

8.6

Match Events

7'

L. Messi↳ S. Reguilon

38'

Gonzalo Luján

40'

N. Allen← S. Reguilon

58'

A. Muyl← W. Madrigal

58'

R. Baker-Whiting← D. Lovitz

61'

M. Silvetti← T. Segovia

71'

E. Tagseth← M. Corcoran

74'

C. Espinoza

78'

L. Suarez← F. Mura

78'

D. Ayala← Y. Bright

85'

B. Acosta← H. Mukhtar

85'

J. Bauer← A. Najar

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

InterNashville

Overview

60%Possession40%

10Total Shots5

5Corners3

11Fouls13

Shots

10Total Shots5

6On Target2

2Off Target2

2Blocked1

5Inside Box3

5Outside Box2

Passing

60%Possession40%

538Total Passes364

474Accurate Passes310

88%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls13

1Yellow Cards0