Inter Miami 3–1 Nashville SC: Result & Stats

Inter Miami

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Nashville SC

L. Messi 90', 19'

T. Allende 62'

H. Mukhtar 90'

10/25/2025

Major League Soccer · Round of 16Chase Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Inter Miami52%

×Draw22%

Nashville SC25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter MiamiExpected goals in this matchNashville SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.25

Inter Miami

1.90

Nashville SC

1.25

Inter Miami creates 52% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 17 away

2.34

creates per match

1.14

1.36

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Inter Miami

2.34

Nashville SC

1.14

allows per match

Inter Miami

1.36

Nashville SC

1.46

+0.41scores more than expected

finishing

+0.04on par

finishing

Inter Miami+0.41scores more

Nashville SC+0.04on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Miami ↓

Nashville SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Inter Miami or draw

75%

Inter Miami or Nashville SC

78%

Draw or Nashville SC

48%

Winning margin

Inter Miami wins by 2+

30%

Nashville SC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Inter Miami 1+ goals

85%

Inter Miami 2+ goals

56%

Inter Miami 3+ goals

29%

Nashville SC 1+ goals

71%

Nashville SC 2+ goals

36%

Nashville SC 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Inter Miami (draw refunded)

68%

Nashville SC (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Miami at home — creates 2.34, concedes 1.36 · 16 matches

Nashville SC away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.46 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Miami attack 2.34 + Nashville SC defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.90

Nashville SC attack 1.14 + Inter Miami defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Inter Miami scores more

52%

level

22%

Nashville SC scores more

25%

Inter Miami at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Inter Miami will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

L. Messi

Inter Miami · F

8.9

Match Events

19'

54'

56'

56'

62'

69'

G. Brugman← P. Yazbek

69'

M. Corcoran← B. Acosta

70'

T. Segovia← B. Rodriguez

74'

A. Muyl← J. Shaffelburg

77'

M. Silvetti← T. Allende

86'

J. Bauer← A. Najar

86'

T. Schmitt← D. Lovitz

89'

Y. Bright← R. de Paul

89'

G. Lujan← I. Fray

90'

L. Messi

90'

H. Mukhtar

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

InterNashville

Overview

55%Possession45%

12Total Shots7

2.34Expected Goals (xG)0.62

5Corners2

13Fouls18

Shots

12Total Shots7

6On Target3

3Off Target4

3Blocked0

9Inside Box4

3Outside Box3

Passing

55%Possession45%

482Total Passes397

423Accurate Passes327

88%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

0.99Goals Prevented0.99

Discipline

13Fouls18

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides3