Inter Miami 5–1 Columbus Crew: Result & Stats

Inter Miami

FT

5 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Columbus Crew

F. Picault 89'

L. Suarez 64'

L. Messi 24', 15'

T. Allende 13'

C. Ruvalcaba 58'

5/31/2025

Major League Soccer · Round 17Chase Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Inter Miami51%

×Draw23%

Columbus Crew27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter MiamiExpected goals in this matchColumbus Crew

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.31

Inter Miami

1.88

Columbus Crew

1.31

Inter Miami creates 44% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 26 away

2.34

creates per match

1.27

1.36

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Inter Miami

2.34

Columbus Crew

1.27

allows per match

Inter Miami

1.36

Columbus Crew

1.41

+0.41scores more than expected

finishing

+0.31scores more than expected

finishing

Inter Miami+0.41scores more

Columbus Crew+0.31scores more

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Miami ↓

Columbus Crew →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Inter Miami or draw

73%

Inter Miami or Columbus Crew

77%

Draw or Columbus Crew

49%

Winning margin

Inter Miami wins by 2+

28%

Columbus Crew wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Inter Miami 1+ goals

85%

Inter Miami 2+ goals

56%

Inter Miami 3+ goals

29%

Columbus Crew 1+ goals

73%

Columbus Crew 2+ goals

38%

Columbus Crew 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Inter Miami (draw refunded)

65%

Columbus Crew (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Miami at home — creates 2.34, concedes 1.36 · 16 matches

Columbus Crew away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.41 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Miami attack 2.34 + Columbus Crew defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.88

Columbus Crew attack 1.27 + Inter Miami defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Inter Miami scores more

51%

level

23%

Columbus Crew scores more

27%

Inter Miami at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Inter Miami will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

L. Messi

Inter Miami · F

10.0

Match Events

9'

C. Ruvalcaba← M. Amundsen

13'

T. Allende↳ L. Messi

15'

L. Messi

24'

L. Messi↳ S. Busquets

46'

R. Rios← O. Ustari

57'

David Martínez

58'

C. Ruvalcaba↳ D. Chambost

62'

Cesar Ruvalcaba

64'

L. Suarez

68'

I. Fray← T. Segovia

72'

A. Herrera← M. Arfsten

72'

A. Sejdic← D. Nagbe

72'

J. Russell-Rowe← D. Gazdag

80'

L. Lappalainen← M. Farsi

81'

F. Picault← L. Suarez

89'

F. Picault↳ L. Messi

90+1'

R. Sailor← D. Martinez

90+1'

A. Obando← T. Allende

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

InterColumbus

Overview

51%Possession49%

14Total Shots12

2.03Expected Goals (xG)0.73

4Corners6

8Fouls12

Shots

14Total Shots12

7On Target1

4Off Target6

3Blocked5

10Inside Box4

4Outside Box8

Passing

51%Possession49%

513Total Passes480

454Accurate Passes433

88%Pass Accuracy90%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

-2.92Goals Prevented-2.92

Discipline

8Fouls12

1Yellow Cards1

4Offsides2