Columbus Crew 0–1 Inter Miami: Result & Stats

Columbus Crew

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Inter Miami

4/19/2025

Major League Soccer · Round 9Huntington Bank Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Columbus Crew39%

×Draw24%

Inter Miami36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Columbus CrewExpected goals in this matchInter Miami

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.46

Columbus Crew

1.52

Inter Miami

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

1.48

creates per match

1.88

1.05

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Columbus Crew

1.48

Inter Miami

1.88

allows per match

Columbus Crew

1.05

Inter Miami

1.56

+0.25scores more than expected

finishing

+0.59scores more than expected

finishing

Columbus Crew+0.25scores more

Inter Miami+0.59scores more

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Columbus Crew ↓

Inter Miami →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Columbus Crew or draw

64%

Columbus Crew or Inter Miami

76%

Draw or Inter Miami

61%

Winning margin

Columbus Crew wins by 2+

19%

Inter Miami wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Columbus Crew 1+ goals

78%

Columbus Crew 2+ goals

45%

Columbus Crew 3+ goals

20%

Inter Miami 1+ goals

77%

Inter Miami 2+ goals

43%

Inter Miami 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Columbus Crew (draw refunded)

52%

Inter Miami (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Columbus Crew at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.05 · 15 matches

Inter Miami away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.56 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Columbus Crew attack 1.48 + Inter Miami defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.52

Inter Miami attack 1.88 + Columbus Crew defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Columbus Crew scores more

39%

level

24%

Inter Miami scores more

36%

Columbus Crew at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Columbus Crew will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff