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Inter Miami II vs Chattanooga Red Wolves — USL League One 2019

Inter Miami II
Inter Miami II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Chattanooga Red Wolves
Chattanooga Red Wolves
9/6/2020USL League OneUSL League One · Round 5Inter Miami CF Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Inter Miami II41%
×Draw24%
Chattanooga Red Wolves35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Miami II
1.59
Chattanooga Red Wolves
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 100 away

creates per match

Inter Miami II
1.59
Chattanooga Red Wolves
1.20

allows per match

Inter Miami II
1.73
Chattanooga Red Wolves
1.59

finishing

Inter Miami II+0.00on par
Chattanooga Red Wolves+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Miami II ↓

Chattanooga Red Wolves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Inter Miami II or draw
65%
Inter Miami II or Chattanooga Red Wolves
76%
Draw or Chattanooga Red Wolves
59%

Winning margin

Inter Miami II wins by 2+
20%
Chattanooga Red Wolves wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Inter Miami II 1+ goals
80%
Inter Miami II 2+ goals
47%
Inter Miami II 3+ goals
21%
Chattanooga Red Wolves 1+ goals
77%
Chattanooga Red Wolves 2+ goals
43%
Chattanooga Red Wolves 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Inter Miami II (draw refunded)
54%
Chattanooga Red Wolves (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Miami II at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.73 · 22 matches

Chattanooga Red Wolves away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.59 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Miami II attack 1.59 + Chattanooga Red Wolves defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.59

Chattanooga Red Wolves attack 1.20 + Inter Miami II defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Inter Miami II scores more
41%
level
24%
Chattanooga Red Wolves scores more
35%

Inter Miami II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Inter Miami II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Inter Miami II vs Chattanooga Red Wolves

Inter Miami II and Chattanooga Red Wolves drew 1-1 in USL League One on September 6, 2020.

The match was played at Inter Miami CF Stadium in Fort Lauderdale, Florida.