Chattanooga Red Wolves 2–1 Inter Miami II

Chattanooga Red Wolves

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Inter Miami II

5/22/2021

USL League One · Round 3CHI Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Chattanooga Red Wolves50%

×Draw24%

Inter Miami II26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chattanooga Red WolvesExpected goals in this matchInter Miami II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.16

Chattanooga Red Wolves

1.71

Inter Miami II

1.16

Chattanooga Red Wolves creates 47% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 22 away

1.64

creates per match

1.09

1.23

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Chattanooga Red Wolves

1.64

Inter Miami II

1.09

allows per match

Chattanooga Red Wolves

1.23

Inter Miami II

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chattanooga Red Wolves+0.00on par

Inter Miami II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chattanooga Red Wolves ↓

Inter Miami II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Chattanooga Red Wolves or draw

74%

Chattanooga Red Wolves or Inter Miami II

76%

Draw or Inter Miami II

50%

Winning margin

Chattanooga Red Wolves wins by 2+

27%

Inter Miami II wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Chattanooga Red Wolves 1+ goals

82%

Chattanooga Red Wolves 2+ goals

51%

Chattanooga Red Wolves 3+ goals

24%

Inter Miami II 1+ goals

69%

Inter Miami II 2+ goals

32%

Inter Miami II 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Chattanooga Red Wolves (draw refunded)

66%

Inter Miami II (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chattanooga Red Wolves at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.23 · 101 matches

Inter Miami II away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.77 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chattanooga Red Wolves attack 1.64 + Inter Miami II defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.71

Inter Miami II attack 1.09 + Chattanooga Red Wolves defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Chattanooga Red Wolves scores more

50%

level

24%

Inter Miami II scores more

26%

Chattanooga Red Wolves at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Chattanooga Red Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff