Inter Manacor 1–4 Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

Inter Manacor

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 4

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

Hamza Bousbaa 5'

Álex Sánchez 45', 12'

Xesc Navalón 37', 26'

9/16/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 2Poliesportiu Municipal Na Capellera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Inter Manacor13%

×Draw19%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas68%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter ManacorExpected goals in this matchIbiza Islas Pitiusas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.79

2.14

Inter Manacor

0.79

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

2.14

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas creates 171% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 44 away

1.00

creates per match

2.00

2.28

allows per match

0.59

creates per match

Inter Manacor

1.00

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

2.00

allows per match

Inter Manacor

2.28

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

0.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter Manacor+0.00on par

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Manacor ↓

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas →

0–05%

0–112%

0–212%

0–39%

0–45%

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Inter Manacor or draw

32%

Inter Manacor or Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

81%

Draw or Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

87%

Winning margin

Inter Manacor wins by 2+

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas wins by 2+

44%

Team goals

Inter Manacor 1+ goals

55%

Inter Manacor 2+ goals

19%

Inter Manacor 3+ goals

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1+ goals

88%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2+ goals

63%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Inter Manacor (draw refunded)

16%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas (draw refunded)

84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Inter Manacor at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.28 · 32 matches

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.59 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Inter Manacor attack 1.00 + Ibiza Islas Pitiusas defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.79

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas attack 2.00 + Inter Manacor defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 2.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 68%?"

Inter Manacor scores more

13%

level

19%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas scores more

68%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Ibiza Islas Pitiusas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Hamza Bousbaa

12'

Álex Sánchez

26'

Xesc Navalón

37'

Jaume Villar← Mario Riquelme

37'

Xesc Navalón

45'

Álex Sánchez

60'

Cristian Cruz← Carlos Inglada

60'

Carlos Fernández← Felipao

65'

Sebastià Ginard← Guillem

70'

C. Carosso← Mario Hernández

70'

Airam López← Nofre Riera

78'

Adrián Compte← Hamza Bousbaa

78'

Agustín← Jaume Matamalas

Inter

Ibiza

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Facundo Bustos

65'▲Sebastià Ginard←▼Guillem

78'▲Adrián Compte←▼Hamza Bousbaa

78'▲Agustín←▼Jaume Matamalas

Inter Manacor substitutes

GinardCompteAgustín

Manager: Raúl Casañ

37'▲Jaume Villar←▼Mario Riquelme

60'▲Cristian Cruz←▼Carlos Inglada

60'▲Carlos Fernández←▼Felipao

70'▲C. Carosso←▼Mario Hernández

70'▲Airam López←▼Nofre Riera

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas substitutes

VillarCruzFernándezCarossoLópez

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Inter Manacor 1–4 Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas beat Inter Manacor 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on September 16, 2023.

Goals: Hamza Bousbaa (5'), Álex Sánchez (12', 45'), Xesc Navalón (26', 37').

The match was played at Poliesportiu Municipal Na Capellera in Manacor.

Inter Manacor vs Ibiza Islas Pitiusas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Inter Manacor 1–4 Ibiza Islas Pitiusas