Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 6–1 Inter Manacor

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

6 – 1

HT: 4 – 0

Inter Manacor

Xesc Navalón 53', 52', 30'

Marquitos 29'

Juanca Alarcón 16'

Álex Sánchez 14'

Carles Fernández 85'

2/4/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 19Estadi Municipal Can Misses III

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas79%

×Draw15%

Inter Manacor6%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ibiza Islas PitiusasExpected goals in this matchInter Manacor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.37

0.52

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

2.37

Inter Manacor

0.52

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas creates 356% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 32 away

2.14

creates per match

0.59

0.44

allows per match

2.59

creates per match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

2.14

Inter Manacor

0.59

allows per match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

0.44

Inter Manacor

2.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas+0.00on par

Inter Manacor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas ↓

Inter Manacor →

0–06%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–013%

1–17%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2–016%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3–012%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–07%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas or draw

94%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas or Inter Manacor

85%

Draw or Inter Manacor

21%

Winning margin

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas wins by 2+

55%

Inter Manacor wins by 2+

Team goals

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1+ goals

91%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2+ goals

68%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 3+ goals

42%

Inter Manacor 1+ goals

41%

Inter Manacor 2+ goals

10%

Inter Manacor 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas (draw refunded)

92%

Inter Manacor (draw refunded)

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.44 · 43 matches

Inter Manacor away — creates 0.59, concedes 2.59 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas attack 2.14 + Inter Manacor defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 2.37

Inter Manacor attack 0.59 + Ibiza Islas Pitiusas defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 79%?"

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas scores more

79%

level

15%

Inter Manacor scores more

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Ibiza Islas Pitiusas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

16'

29'

30'

52'

53'

54'

Dani Sales← Jaume Villar

54'

F. Núñez← Carlos Inglada

54'

Jorge Bengoetxea← Juanca Alarcón

59'

Pere Nicolau← Jaume Martí

66'

Roberto Fernández← Álex Sánchez

66'

Felipao← Xesc Navalón

70'

Carles Fernández← Alejandro Serrano

77'

Guillem Caldentey← Mohammed Maatougui

85'

Carles Fernández

Ibiza

Inter

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽3

▼

Navalón

⚽

▼

Alarcón

⚽

▼

Sánchez

Manager: Raúl Casañ

54'▲Dani Sales←▼Jaume Villar

54'▲F. Núñez←▼Carlos Inglada

54'▲Jorge Bengoetxea←▼Juanca Alarcón

66'▲Roberto Fernández←▼Álex Sánchez

66'▲Felipao←▼Xesc Navalón

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas substitutes

SalesNúñezBengoetxeaFernándezFelipao

Manager: Javier Linares

59'▲Pere Nicolau←▼Jaume Martí

70'▲Carles Fernández←▼Alejandro Serrano

77'▲Guillem Caldentey←▼Mohammed Maatougui

Inter Manacor substitutes

NicolauFernándezCaldentey

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 6–1 Inter Manacor

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas beat Inter Manacor 6-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on February 4, 2024.

Goals: Álex Sánchez (14'), Juanca Alarcón (16'), Marquitos (29'), Xesc Navalón (30', 52', 53'), Carles Fernández (85').

The match was played at Estadi Municipal Can Misses III in Eivissa.

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas vs Inter Manacor — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 6–1 Inter Manacor