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Inter Manacor vs Collerense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Inter Manacor
Inter Manacor
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 3
Collerense
Collerense
10/8/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 5Poliesportiu Municipal Na Capellera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Inter Manacor34%
×Draw24%
Collerense42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Manacor
1.44
Collerense
1.64

Collerense creates 14% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 113 away

creates per match

Inter Manacor
1.00
Collerense
1.00

allows per match

Inter Manacor
2.28
Collerense
1.88

finishing

Inter Manacor+0.00on par
Collerense+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Manacor ↓

Collerense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Inter Manacor or draw
58%
Inter Manacor or Collerense
76%
Draw or Collerense
66%

Winning margin

Inter Manacor wins by 2+
16%
Collerense wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Inter Manacor 1+ goals
76%
Inter Manacor 2+ goals
42%
Inter Manacor 3+ goals
18%
Collerense 1+ goals
81%
Collerense 2+ goals
49%
Collerense 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Inter Manacor (draw refunded)
44%
Collerense (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Manacor at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.28 · 32 matches

Collerense away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.88 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Manacor attack 1.00 + Collerense defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.44

Collerense attack 1.00 + Inter Manacor defence 2.28 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Inter Manacor scores more
34%
level
24%
Collerense scores more
42%

Collerense at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Collerense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Inter Manacor 1 – 5 Collerense

Collerense beat Inter Manacor 5-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on October 8, 2023.

The match was played at Poliesportiu Municipal Na Capellera in Manacor.