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Collerense vs Inter Manacor — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Collerense
Collerense
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Inter Manacor
Inter Manacor
2/25/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 22Estadio Municipal Coll d’en Rebassa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Collerense60%
×Draw22%
Inter Manacor18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Collerense
1.92
Inter Manacor
0.95

Collerense creates 102% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 32 away

creates per match

Collerense
1.26
Inter Manacor
0.59

allows per match

Collerense
1.31
Inter Manacor
2.59

finishing

Collerense+0.00on par
Inter Manacor+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Collerense ↓

Inter Manacor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Collerense or draw
82%
Collerense or Inter Manacor
78%
Draw or Inter Manacor
40%

Winning margin

Collerense wins by 2+
35%
Inter Manacor wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Collerense 1+ goals
85%
Collerense 2+ goals
57%
Collerense 3+ goals
30%
Inter Manacor 1+ goals
61%
Inter Manacor 2+ goals
25%
Inter Manacor 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Collerense (draw refunded)
77%
Inter Manacor (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Collerense at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.31 · 112 matches

Inter Manacor away — creates 0.59, concedes 2.59 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Collerense attack 1.26 + Inter Manacor defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 1.92

Inter Manacor attack 0.59 + Collerense defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Collerense scores more
60%
level
22%
Inter Manacor scores more
18%

Collerense at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Collerense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Collerense 4–2 Inter Manacor

Collerense beat Inter Manacor 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on February 25, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Coll d’en Rebassa in Mallorca.