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Inter Lions vs Hakoah Sydney City — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Inter Lions
Inter Lions
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Hakoah Sydney City
Hakoah Sydney City
H. Rushton 35'
O. Duke 3'
G. Tuson-Firth 8'
N. Tooley 4'
4/5/2025New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 9Majors Bay Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Inter Lions41%
×Draw23%
Hakoah Sydney City36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Lions
1.71
Hakoah Sydney City
1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 75 away

creates per match

Inter Lions
1.70
Hakoah Sydney City
1.64

allows per match

Inter Lions
1.59
Hakoah Sydney City
1.72

finishing

Inter Lions+0.00on par
Hakoah Sydney City+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Lions ↓

Hakoah Sydney City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Inter Lions or draw
64%
Inter Lions or Hakoah Sydney City
77%
Draw or Hakoah Sydney City
59%

Winning margin

Inter Lions wins by 2+
21%
Hakoah Sydney City wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Inter Lions 1+ goals
82%
Inter Lions 2+ goals
51%
Inter Lions 3+ goals
24%
Hakoah Sydney City 1+ goals
80%
Hakoah Sydney City 2+ goals
48%
Hakoah Sydney City 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Inter Lions (draw refunded)
53%
Hakoah Sydney City (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Lions at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.59 · 56 matches

Hakoah Sydney City away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.72 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Lions attack 1.70 + Hakoah Sydney City defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.71

Hakoah Sydney City attack 1.64 + Inter Lions defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Inter Lions scores more
41%
level
23%
Hakoah Sydney City scores more
36%

Inter Lions at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Inter Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
O. Duke
4'
N. Tooley
8'
G. Tuson-Firth
35'
H. Rushton

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Inter Lions 2 – 2 Hakoah Sydney City

Inter Lions and Hakoah Sydney City drew 2-2 in New South Wales NPL 2 on April 5, 2025.

Goals: O. Duke (3'), N. Tooley (4'), G. Tuson-Firth (8'), H. Rushton (35').

The match was played at Majors Bay Reserve in Sydney.