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Hakoah Sydney City vs Inter Lions — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Hakoah Sydney City
Hakoah Sydney City
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Inter Lions
Inter Lions
V. Cuny 66'
S. Portolesi 54'
7/19/2025New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 24Hensley Athletic Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Hakoah Sydney City44%
×Draw23%
Inter Lions33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hakoah Sydney City
1.83
Inter Lions
1.56

Hakoah Sydney City creates 17% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 57 away

creates per match

Hakoah Sydney City
1.84
Inter Lions
1.53

allows per match

Hakoah Sydney City
1.59
Inter Lions
1.82

finishing

Hakoah Sydney City+0.00on par
Inter Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hakoah Sydney City ↓

Inter Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Hakoah Sydney City or draw
67%
Hakoah Sydney City or Inter Lions
77%
Draw or Inter Lions
56%

Winning margin

Hakoah Sydney City wins by 2+
24%
Inter Lions wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Hakoah Sydney City 1+ goals
84%
Hakoah Sydney City 2+ goals
54%
Hakoah Sydney City 3+ goals
28%
Inter Lions 1+ goals
79%
Inter Lions 2+ goals
46%
Inter Lions 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Hakoah Sydney City (draw refunded)
57%
Inter Lions (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hakoah Sydney City at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.59 · 76 matches

Inter Lions away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.82 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hakoah Sydney City attack 1.84 + Inter Lions defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.83

Inter Lions attack 1.53 + Hakoah Sydney City defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hakoah Sydney City scores more
44%
level
23%
Inter Lions scores more
33%

Hakoah Sydney City at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hakoah Sydney City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

54'
S. Portolesi
66'
V. Cuny
72'
N. Drummond

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL 2: Hakoah Sydney City 1–1 Inter Lions

Hakoah Sydney City and Inter Lions drew 1-1 in New South Wales NPL 2 on July 19, 2025.

Goals: S. Portolesi (54'), V. Cuny (66').

The match was played at Hensley Athletic Field in Eastgardens, Botany Bay.