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Inter Lions vs Central Coast United — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Inter Lions
Inter Lions
FT
4 – 3
Central Coast United
Central Coast United
8/26/2023New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 30Majors Bay Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Inter Lions55%
×Draw20%
Central Coast United25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Lions
2.29
Central Coast United
1.50

Inter Lions creates 53% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 15 away

creates per match

Inter Lions
1.70
Central Coast United
1.40

allows per match

Inter Lions
1.59
Central Coast United
2.87

finishing

Inter Lions+0.00on par
Central Coast United+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Lions ↓

Central Coast United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Inter Lions or draw
75%
Inter Lions or Central Coast United
80%
Draw or Central Coast United
45%

Winning margin

Inter Lions wins by 2+
34%
Central Coast United wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Inter Lions 1+ goals
90%
Inter Lions 2+ goals
66%
Inter Lions 3+ goals
40%
Central Coast United 1+ goals
78%
Central Coast United 2+ goals
44%
Central Coast United 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Inter Lions (draw refunded)
69%
Central Coast United (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Lions at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.59 · 56 matches

Central Coast United away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Lions attack 1.70 + Central Coast United defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.29

Central Coast United attack 1.40 + Inter Lions defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Inter Lions scores more
55%
level
20%
Central Coast United scores more
25%

Inter Lions at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Inter Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Inter Lions vs Central Coast United

Inter Lions beat Central Coast United 4-3 in New South Wales NPL 2 on August 26, 2023.

The match was played at Majors Bay Reserve in Sydney.