Central Coast United 1–3 Inter Lions

Central Coast United

FT

1 – 3

Inter Lions

5/13/2023

New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 15Mariners Centre of Excellence Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Central Coast United28%

×Draw22%

Inter Lions50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Central Coast UnitedExpected goals in this matchInter Lions

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

2.00

Central Coast United

1.45

Inter Lions

2.00

Inter Lions creates 38% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 57 away

1.07

creates per match

1.53

2.47

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Central Coast United

1.07

Inter Lions

1.53

allows per match

Central Coast United

2.47

Inter Lions

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Central Coast United+0.00on par

Inter Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central Coast United ↓

Inter Lions →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Central Coast United or draw

50%

Central Coast United or Inter Lions

78%

Draw or Inter Lions

72%

Winning margin

Central Coast United wins by 2+

13%

Inter Lions wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Central Coast United 1+ goals

77%

Central Coast United 2+ goals

42%

Central Coast United 3+ goals

18%

Inter Lions 1+ goals

86%

Inter Lions 2+ goals

59%

Inter Lions 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Central Coast United (draw refunded)

36%

Inter Lions (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central Coast United at home — creates 1.07, concedes 2.47 · 15 matches

Inter Lions away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.82 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central Coast United attack 1.07 + Inter Lions defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.45

Inter Lions attack 1.53 + Central Coast United defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Central Coast United scores more

28%

level

22%

Inter Lions scores more

50%

Inter Lions at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Inter Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff