Inter Kashi 3–2 Gokulam: Result & Stats | I-League

Inter Kashi

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Gokulam

2/1/2025

I-League · Round 12Kalyani Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Inter Kashi41%

×Draw22%

Gokulam37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter KashiExpected goals in this matchGokulam

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.68

Inter Kashi

1.79

Gokulam

1.68

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 65 away

2.35

creates per match

1.66

1.70

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Inter Kashi

2.35

Gokulam

1.66

allows per match

Inter Kashi

1.70

Gokulam

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter Kashi+0.00on par

Gokulam+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Kashi ↓

Gokulam →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Inter Kashi or draw

63%

Inter Kashi or Gokulam

78%

Draw or Gokulam

59%

Winning margin

Inter Kashi wins by 2+

22%

Gokulam wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Inter Kashi 1+ goals

83%

Inter Kashi 2+ goals

53%

Inter Kashi 3+ goals

26%

Gokulam 1+ goals

81%

Gokulam 2+ goals

50%

Gokulam 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Inter Kashi (draw refunded)

53%

Gokulam (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Kashi at home — creates 2.35, concedes 1.70 · 23 matches

Gokulam away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.22 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Kashi attack 2.35 + Gokulam defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.79

Gokulam attack 1.66 + Inter Kashi defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Inter Kashi scores more

41%

level

22%

Gokulam scores more

37%

Inter Kashi at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Inter Kashi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff