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Inter Dobrich vs Dunav Ruse — Third League - Northeast 2018

Inter Dobrich
Inter Dobrich
FT
0 – 4
Dunav Ruse
Dunav Ruse
11/21/2020Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 15Izkustven teren Druzhba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Inter Dobrich8%
×Draw12%
Dunav Ruse81%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Dobrich
1.02
Dunav Ruse
3.38

Dunav Ruse creates 231% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 27 away

creates per match

Inter Dobrich
0.85
Dunav Ruse
2.37

allows per match

Inter Dobrich
4.38
Dunav Ruse
1.19

finishing

Inter Dobrich+0.00on par
Dunav Ruse+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Dobrich ↓

Dunav Ruse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–27%
0–38%
0–47%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–28%
1–39%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–34%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–3 (9%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Inter Dobrich or draw
19%
Inter Dobrich or Dunav Ruse
88%
Draw or Dunav Ruse
92%

Winning margin

Inter Dobrich wins by 2+
3%
Dunav Ruse wins by 2+
63%

Team goals

Inter Dobrich 1+ goals
64%
Inter Dobrich 2+ goals
27%
Inter Dobrich 3+ goals
8%
Dunav Ruse 1+ goals
96%
Dunav Ruse 2+ goals
84%
Dunav Ruse 3+ goals
64%

Draw no bet

Inter Dobrich (draw refunded)
9%
Dunav Ruse (draw refunded)
91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Dobrich at home — creates 0.85, concedes 4.38 · 13 matches

Dunav Ruse away — creates 2.37, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Dobrich attack 0.85 + Dunav Ruse defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.02

Dunav Ruse attack 2.37 + Inter Dobrich defence 4.38 → ÷2 → 3.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Inter Dobrich scores more
8%
level
12%
Dunav Ruse scores more
81%

Dunav Ruse at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Dunav Ruse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Inter Dobrich vs Dunav Ruse

Dunav Ruse beat Inter Dobrich 4-0 in Third League - Northeast on November 21, 2020.

The match was played at Izkustven teren Druzhba in Dobrich.