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Dunav Ruse vs Inter Dobrich — Third League - Northeast 2018

Dunav Ruse
Dunav Ruse
FT
3 – 0
Inter Dobrich
Inter Dobrich
5/30/2021Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 30Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Dunav Ruse92%
×Draw6%
Inter Dobrich2%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunav Ruse
4.00
Inter Dobrich
0.59

Dunav Ruse creates 578% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 14 away

creates per match

Dunav Ruse
3.08
Inter Dobrich
0.57

allows per match

Dunav Ruse
0.62
Inter Dobrich
4.93

finishing

Dunav Ruse+0.00on par
Inter Dobrich+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunav Ruse ↓

Inter Dobrich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–13%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–15%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–012%
4–17%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (12%) · grid covers 71% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
63%37%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Dunav Ruse or draw
98%
Dunav Ruse or Inter Dobrich
94%
Draw or Inter Dobrich
8%

Winning margin

Dunav Ruse wins by 2+
79%
Inter Dobrich wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Dunav Ruse 1+ goals
98%
Dunav Ruse 2+ goals
90%
Dunav Ruse 3+ goals
73%
Inter Dobrich 1+ goals
45%
Inter Dobrich 2+ goals
12%
Inter Dobrich 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Dunav Ruse (draw refunded)
98%
Inter Dobrich (draw refunded)
2%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunav Ruse at home — creates 3.08, concedes 0.62 · 26 matches

Inter Dobrich away — creates 0.57, concedes 4.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunav Ruse attack 3.08 + Inter Dobrich defence 4.93 → ÷2 → 4.00

Inter Dobrich attack 0.57 + Dunav Ruse defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 92%?"

Dunav Ruse scores more
92%
level
6%
Inter Dobrich scores more
2%

Dunav Ruse at 92% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 92% does not mean "Dunav Ruse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dunav Ruse vs Inter Dobrich

Dunav Ruse beat Inter Dobrich 3-0 in Third League - Northeast on May 30, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Rousse.