Inter Dobrich 1–4 Chernomorets Balchik

Inter Dobrich

FT

1 – 4

Chernomorets Balchik

10/25/2020

Third League - Northeast · North-East - 11Izkustven teren Druzhba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Inter Dobrich5%

×Draw10%

Chernomorets Balchik84%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Inter DobrichExpected goals in this matchChernomorets Balchik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.77

3.32

Inter Dobrich

0.77

Chernomorets Balchik

3.32

Chernomorets Balchik creates 331% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 70 away

0.85

creates per match

2.26

4.38

allows per match

0.70

creates per match

Inter Dobrich

0.85

Chernomorets Balchik

2.26

allows per match

Inter Dobrich

4.38

Chernomorets Balchik

0.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Inter Dobrich+0.00on par

Chernomorets Balchik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Dobrich ↓

Chernomorets Balchik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–16%

0–210%

0–311%

0–49%

1

1–01%

1–15%

1–27%

1–38%

1–47%

2

2–01%

2–12%

2–23%

2–33%

2–43%

3

3–00%

3–10%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (11%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Inter Dobrich or draw

16%

Inter Dobrich or Chernomorets Balchik

90%

Draw or Chernomorets Balchik

95%

Winning margin

Inter Dobrich wins by 2+

1%

Chernomorets Balchik wins by 2+

67%

Team goals

Inter Dobrich 1+ goals

54%

Inter Dobrich 2+ goals

18%

Inter Dobrich 3+ goals

4%

Chernomorets Balchik 1+ goals

96%

Chernomorets Balchik 2+ goals

84%

Chernomorets Balchik 3+ goals

62%

Draw no bet

Inter Dobrich (draw refunded)

6%

Chernomorets Balchik (draw refunded)

94%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Dobrich at home — creates 0.85, concedes 4.38 · 13 matches

Chernomorets Balchik away — creates 2.26, concedes 0.70 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Dobrich attack 0.85 + Chernomorets Balchik defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.77

Chernomorets Balchik attack 2.26 + Inter Dobrich defence 4.38 → ÷2 → 3.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Inter Dobrich scores more

5%

level

10%

Chernomorets Balchik scores more

84%

Chernomorets Balchik at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Chernomorets Balchik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff