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Chernomorets Balchik vs Inter Dobrich — Third League - Northeast 2018

Chernomorets Balchik
Chernomorets Balchik
FT
6 – 1
Inter Dobrich
Inter Dobrich
5/5/2021Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 26Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Chernomorets Balchik91%
×Draw6%
Inter Dobrich3%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chernomorets Balchik
3.79
Inter Dobrich
0.56

Chernomorets Balchik creates 577% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 14 away

creates per match

Chernomorets Balchik
2.66
Inter Dobrich
0.57

allows per match

Chernomorets Balchik
0.55
Inter Dobrich
4.93

finishing

Chernomorets Balchik+0.00on par
Inter Dobrich+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chernomorets Balchik ↓

Inter Dobrich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–13%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–012%
4–17%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (13%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Chernomorets Balchik or draw
97%
Chernomorets Balchik or Inter Dobrich
94%
Draw or Inter Dobrich
9%

Winning margin

Chernomorets Balchik wins by 2+
78%
Inter Dobrich wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Chernomorets Balchik 1+ goals
98%
Chernomorets Balchik 2+ goals
88%
Chernomorets Balchik 3+ goals
70%
Inter Dobrich 1+ goals
43%
Inter Dobrich 2+ goals
11%
Inter Dobrich 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Chernomorets Balchik (draw refunded)
97%
Inter Dobrich (draw refunded)
3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chernomorets Balchik at home — creates 2.66, concedes 0.55 · 71 matches

Inter Dobrich away — creates 0.57, concedes 4.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chernomorets Balchik attack 2.66 + Inter Dobrich defence 4.93 → ÷2 → 3.79

Inter Dobrich attack 0.57 + Chernomorets Balchik defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 91%?"

Chernomorets Balchik scores more
91%
level
6%
Inter Dobrich scores more
3%

Chernomorets Balchik at 91% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 91% does not mean "Chernomorets Balchik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Chernomorets Balchik 6–1 Inter Dobrich

Chernomorets Balchik beat Inter Dobrich 6-1 in Third League - Northeast on May 5, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Balchik.