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Inter Dobrich vs Botev Novi Pazar — Third League - Northeast 2018

Inter Dobrich
Inter Dobrich
FT
0 – 1
Botev Novi Pazar
Botev Novi Pazar
4/18/2021Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 23Stadion Sgurta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Inter Dobrich29%
×Draw19%
Botev Novi Pazar52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Dobrich
1.92
Botev Novi Pazar
2.58

Botev Novi Pazar creates 34% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 90 away

creates per match

Inter Dobrich
0.85
Botev Novi Pazar
0.77

allows per match

Inter Dobrich
4.38
Botev Novi Pazar
2.98

finishing

Inter Dobrich+0.00on par
Botev Novi Pazar+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Dobrich ↓

Botev Novi Pazar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Inter Dobrich or draw
48%
Inter Dobrich or Botev Novi Pazar
81%
Draw or Botev Novi Pazar
71%

Winning margin

Inter Dobrich wins by 2+
15%
Botev Novi Pazar wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Inter Dobrich 1+ goals
85%
Inter Dobrich 2+ goals
57%
Inter Dobrich 3+ goals
30%
Botev Novi Pazar 1+ goals
92%
Botev Novi Pazar 2+ goals
72%
Botev Novi Pazar 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Inter Dobrich (draw refunded)
36%
Botev Novi Pazar (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Dobrich at home — creates 0.85, concedes 4.38 · 13 matches

Botev Novi Pazar away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.98 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Dobrich attack 0.85 + Botev Novi Pazar defence 2.98 → ÷2 → 1.92

Botev Novi Pazar attack 0.77 + Inter Dobrich defence 4.38 → ÷2 → 2.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Inter Dobrich scores more
29%
level
19%
Botev Novi Pazar scores more
52%

Botev Novi Pazar at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Botev Novi Pazar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Inter Dobrich 0–1 Botev Novi Pazar

Botev Novi Pazar beat Inter Dobrich 1-0 in Third League - Northeast on April 18, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Sgurta in Dobrich.