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Botev Novi Pazar vs Inter Dobrich — Third League - Northeast 2018

Botev Novi Pazar
Botev Novi Pazar
FT
3 – 2
Inter Dobrich
Inter Dobrich
10/3/2020Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · North-East - 8Stadion Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Botev Novi Pazar74%
×Draw14%
Inter Dobrich11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Novi Pazar
3.00
Inter Dobrich
1.12

Botev Novi Pazar creates 168% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 14 away

creates per match

Botev Novi Pazar
1.07
Inter Dobrich
0.57

allows per match

Botev Novi Pazar
1.67
Inter Dobrich
4.93

finishing

Botev Novi Pazar+0.00on par
Inter Dobrich+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Novi Pazar ↓

Inter Dobrich →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Botev Novi Pazar or draw
89%
Botev Novi Pazar or Inter Dobrich
86%
Draw or Inter Dobrich
26%

Winning margin

Botev Novi Pazar wins by 2+
55%
Inter Dobrich wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Botev Novi Pazar 1+ goals
95%
Botev Novi Pazar 2+ goals
79%
Botev Novi Pazar 3+ goals
56%
Inter Dobrich 1+ goals
67%
Inter Dobrich 2+ goals
31%
Inter Dobrich 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Botev Novi Pazar (draw refunded)
87%
Inter Dobrich (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Novi Pazar at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.67 · 90 matches

Inter Dobrich away — creates 0.57, concedes 4.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Novi Pazar attack 1.07 + Inter Dobrich defence 4.93 → ÷2 → 3.00

Inter Dobrich attack 0.57 + Botev Novi Pazar defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Botev Novi Pazar scores more
74%
level
14%
Inter Dobrich scores more
11%

Botev Novi Pazar at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Botev Novi Pazar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northeast: Botev Novi Pazar 3–2 Inter Dobrich

Botev Novi Pazar beat Inter Dobrich 3-2 in Third League - Northeast on October 3, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Botev in Novi pazar.