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Inter de Bebedouro U20 vs Francana U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Inter de Bebedouro U20
Inter de Bebedouro U20
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Francana U20
Francana U20
5/31/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 8Estádio Sócrates Stamato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Inter de Bebedouro U2047%
×Draw20%
Francana U2033%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter de Bebedouro U20
2.40
Francana U20
2.00

Inter de Bebedouro U20 creates 20% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Inter de Bebedouro U20
1.40
Francana U20
1.20

allows per match

Inter de Bebedouro U20
2.80
Francana U20
3.40

finishing

Inter de Bebedouro U20+0.00on par
Francana U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 81Under: 1981%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 78No: 2278%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter de Bebedouro U20 ↓

Francana U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Inter de Bebedouro U20 or draw
67%
Inter de Bebedouro U20 or Francana U20
80%
Draw or Francana U20
53%

Winning margin

Inter de Bebedouro U20 wins by 2+
28%
Francana U20 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Inter de Bebedouro U20 1+ goals
91%
Inter de Bebedouro U20 2+ goals
69%
Inter de Bebedouro U20 3+ goals
42%
Francana U20 1+ goals
86%
Francana U20 2+ goals
59%
Francana U20 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Inter de Bebedouro U20 (draw refunded)
59%
Francana U20 (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter de Bebedouro U20 at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.80 · 5 matches

Francana U20 away — creates 1.20, concedes 3.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter de Bebedouro U20 attack 1.40 + Francana U20 defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 2.40

Francana U20 attack 1.20 + Inter de Bebedouro U20 defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Inter de Bebedouro U20 scores more
47%
level
20%
Francana U20 scores more
33%

Inter de Bebedouro U20 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Inter de Bebedouro U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Inter de Bebedouro U20 2–3 Francana U20

Francana U20 beat Inter de Bebedouro U20 3-2 in Paulista - U20 on May 31, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Sócrates Stamato in Bebedouro, São Paulo.