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Francana U20 vs Inter de Bebedouro U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Francana U20
Francana U20
FT
7 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Inter de Bebedouro U20
Inter de Bebedouro U20
L. Henrique Soares 87' (pen), 64', 45'
Diego 69', 62', 56', 34'
4/26/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 3Estádio Municipal Dr. José Lancha Filho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Francana U2072%
×Draw13%
Inter de Bebedouro U2014%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Francana U20
3.90
Inter de Bebedouro U20
1.80

Francana U20 creates 117% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Francana U20
2.80
Inter de Bebedouro U20
1.40

allows per match

Francana U20
2.20
Inter de Bebedouro U20
5.00

finishing

Francana U20+0.00on par
Inter de Bebedouro U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 91Under: 991%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 82No: 1882%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Francana U20 ↓

Inter de Bebedouro U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–22%
1–31%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–26%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 70% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
91%9%3.5
80%20%4.5
64%36%

Double chance

Francana U20 or draw
86%
Francana U20 or Inter de Bebedouro U20
87%
Draw or Inter de Bebedouro U20
28%

Winning margin

Francana U20 wins by 2+
55%
Inter de Bebedouro U20 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Francana U20 1+ goals
98%
Francana U20 2+ goals
89%
Francana U20 3+ goals
72%
Inter de Bebedouro U20 1+ goals
83%
Inter de Bebedouro U20 2+ goals
54%
Inter de Bebedouro U20 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Francana U20 (draw refunded)
83%
Inter de Bebedouro U20 (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
79%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Francana U20 at home — creates 2.80, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

Inter de Bebedouro U20 away — creates 1.40, concedes 5.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Francana U20 attack 2.80 + Inter de Bebedouro U20 defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 3.90

Inter de Bebedouro U20 attack 1.40 + Francana U20 defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Francana U20 scores more
72%
level
13%
Inter de Bebedouro U20 scores more
14%

Francana U20 at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Francana U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'
Diego
45'
L. Henrique Soares
56'
Diego
62'
Diego
64'
L. Henrique Soares
69'
Diego
87'
L. Henrique SoaresPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Francana U20 7–0 Inter de Bebedouro U20

Francana U20 beat Inter de Bebedouro U20 7-0 in Paulista - U20 on April 26, 2024.

Goals: Diego (34', 56', 62', 69'), L. Henrique Soares (45', 64', 87' pen).

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Dr. José Lancha Filho in Franca, São Paulo.